Hi, and welcome to the late September newsletter for TrainerTrackStats NH 2006/7 (TTS). ------------------------------------------------------------ In this newsletter, we take a look at -the problems with betting on NH racing at this time of the year -a system angle that always worth considering when making a bet PLUS I'll reveal tomorrow's qualifiers as a taster to what TTS has to offer! ------------------------------------------------------------ ************************************* The Perils of NH Betting in September ************************************* Although these days the jumping season can justifiably lay claim to being an all year round sport, it also fair to say that the main training yards don't really think about the 'true' season until October / November. The main reasons for this are that for many aspirant equine stars, the main events are in the Spring, and its simply too long to keep a horse 'on the go' if they debut at this time of the year. Those that do inevitably arrive at the course with their trainer saying, "he's fit enough to do himself justice", or some other ambiguous empty statement. What this basically means to a punter, is bet this horse at your peril. You know he's the best horse in the race, but he's obviously not fully wound up for this. My advice when these go off favourite, especially odds on, is take a watching brief. If you must bet, find a horse who has run with credit already and is an each way price, then bet accordingly. Another peril of betting this time of year, is the change in the class of the animals running, and the change in the ground conditions. Its common for a horse to run up a streak on fast ground against inferior opposition, and then - as the days get shorter and the turf gets wetter - they find themselves out of their depth. I'm always very wary of this type from now onwards (i.e. late September), and I counsel caution to you too. ********************************* System Angles #1 - Class Droppers ********************************* The first in a regular series of features, 'System Angles' will highlight a way to assist in the elimination process and identify the horses with the best 'profile' to win a race. What do I mean by profile? Well, its the attributes of a horse's recent career that often falls between the lines of the form book. A classic example this month is class, and specifically horses running in a lower class of race than last time out. The logic is simple: if a horse goes up in class, it will race against better horses, and should therefore find it tougher. If a horse drops in class, it should - in theory at least - race against slower horses and, therefore, have a better chance of winning. But do the stats support this argument? The answer is a resounding yes, as you might expect. Indeed if you'd bet all male novice chasers in the first three in the betting, when they'd dropped three classes or more, you'd have made a healthy profit. See the table below: Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Variable Category Odds, Starting Price Rank 1st favourite 2nd favourite 3rd favourite Race Type by Obstacle chase Race Type by Horse novice Horse, Class Change dropped >3 classes dropped 3 classes YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP% 2001 37 95 38.95 3.93 4.14 1.62 2002 52 114 45.61 21.15 18.55 16.50 2003 47 120 39.17 -11.45 -9.54 -3.88 2004 44 104 42.31 19.89 19.13 9.03 2005 53 139 38.13 17.21 12.38 11.56 ____________________________________________________________ 233 572 40.73 50.73 8.87 6.08 As you can see there's plenty of action here, and - except for 2003 - all years were marginally profitable. You can find a number of other system angles like this in my 'SEVEN WINTER WARMER JUMPING SYSTEMS' guide that I'm giving away free with TrainerTrackStats NH 2006/7, as well as three other bonus products which will add real power to your winter betting action. Check out www.trainertrackstats.com for more details. ************************************** TOMORROW'S QUALIFIERS (21ST SEPTEMBER) ************************************** There's lots of action for TTS followers, and hopefully a few winners too. The ten (!) qualifiers are: Font 2.10 Irish Whispers Font 3.40 Sonoma Font 4.40 Eljay's Boy Font 4.40 Saby Pert 2.20 Glingerbank Pert 2.50 Knowhere Pert 4.20 Billyandi Pert 4.50 Scribano Eile Pert 4.50 Glen Rouge Pert 5.20 Thai Vango ************************************* Well, thats all for this issue, except to say thanks for reading, and for being a TTS subscriber. Of course, I'm always interested in your feedback, so please send any questions or comments to enquiries@trainertrackstats.com If you know of anybody else who you think might enjoy receiving this newsletter, please send their name and email address to enquiries@trainertrackstats.com, or invite them to log onto the website at www.trainertrackstats.com Thanks, and I hope that your next bet is a winner, Matt enquiries@trainertrackstats.com