-------------------- WELCOME & CONTENTS -------------------- Hello, and welcome to your fortnightly newsletter from the offices of TrainerTrackStats. In this issue: - Review since last newsletter - Coming Next... - System angle: Novice Hurdlers off a Layoff - The TTS Joke... - Tomorrow's qualifiers ------------------------------ REVIEW SINCE LAST NEWSLETTER ------------------------------ Well, after a strong start to the season in September, its been a very tough October. However, despite wild variations in going conditions, many horses from big stables having their first runs, and a hatful of misplaced gambles, TTS followers have still recorded a small profit of £325 for the month (to £20 stakes). Overall, we're now showing a profit of £1,137 since the tapes went up on our season. That's equivalent to 20 times the price of the guide, or 42 months of the guest subscription. I think you'll agree, its pretty hard to crab that value! ----------------- COMING NEXT.... ----------------- As well as the opening moves of the jump season, the Breeders Cup marks the end of the international Flat racing season (with the exception of some racing in Hong Kong and Japan), and I shall be making my annual pilgrimage on Thursday morning. I usually do very well at the meeting, having spent a good month beforehand reading up. (I'm a huge fan of the Pick 3 wager which, some of you will know, involves selecting three consecutive winners. It can pay handsome dividends and, as its only three races, it is 'gettable'.) However, this year, other commitments have left me with a very steep learning curve to get to grips with the runners, and my usual purchase of the excellent 'Crushing the Cup' guide will be keeping me awake on the flight Stateside. The races rotate from venue to venue and are to be run at Churchill Downs, Kentucky, this year. There is a lot of European interest, perhaps headed by George Washington and David Junior in the Classic. My advice for the Breeders' Cup is the same as every year: bet the European's in the Turf races. Its not rocket science, and the odds have become a little shorter since the great days of 26/1 Domedriver (Arlington, Chicago, 2002) and the like. But it remains the case that the US turf horses are consistently overbet, and consistently outclassed by the Euro horses. You only have to look at the European history of some of their top turf horses. The likes of Aragorn, whose best UK finish last summer was 3rd in a Listed race, will surely be no match for the pick of the Euro's, despite a string of 1's since being sent Stateside. At around 7/2, he is a standout lay for me. The poor thing won't know what's hit him when the best of British (and French and Irish) line up at the start! Good luck if you're playing on the BC races - let me know how you get on: enquiries@trainertrackstats.com -------------------------------------------------------- SYSTEM ANGLE: 1ST TIME OUT NOV HURDLERS AFTER A LAYOFF -------------------------------------------------------- There can be good money to be made from novice hurdlers. One of my TTS subscribers wrote to me, and told me about some angles that he'd been playing with in relation to these types, and I thought I'd try to develop this further Using the encyclopaedic database, Racing Systems Builder (the same hugely impressive database I trawl to locate the TrainerTrackStats nuggets), I got a subset of relevant information. After playing around with these few variables for an hour or so, I ended up with the following criteria: - Novice Hurdlers having their first run of the season. - Haven't run for 224 days or more (this date is not arbitrary, its the cutoff within Racing Systems Builder) - Forecast in Racing Post to be in the 1st 3 in the betting, and 14/1 or shorter - 5, 6 or 7 years old YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP% 2001 27 96 28.13 3.15 3.28 1.71 2002 21 89 23.60 4.94 5.55 0.97 2003 35 112 31.25 35.99 32.13 25.06 2004 23 80 28.75 5.19 6.49 22.36 2005 21 85 24.71 12.52 14.73 6.32 ____________________________________________________________ 127 462 27.49 61.79 13.37 11.49 As you can see, there's plenty of action and a small profit every year, so these are well worth following. ---------------------- THE TTS JOKE....... ---------------------- A horse racing joke, which is mildly amusing...! A champion jockey is about to enter an important race on a new horse. The horse's trainer meets him before the race and says, "All you have to remember with this horse is that every time you approach a jump, you have to shout, 'ALLLLEEE OOOP!' really loudly in the horse's ear. Providing you do that, you'll be fine." The jockey thinks the trainer is mad but promises to shout the command. The race begins and they approach the first hurdle. The jockey ignores the trainer's ridiculous advice and the horse crashes straight through the center of the jump. They carry on and approach the second hurdle. The jockey, somewhat embarrassed, whispers "Aleeee ooop" in the horse's ear. The same thing happens--the horse crashes straight through the center of the jump. At the third hurdle, the jockey thinks, "It's no good, I'll have to do it," and yells, "ALLLEEE OOOP!" really loudly. Sure enough, the horse sails over the jump with no problems. This continues for the rest of the race, but due to the earlier problems the horse only finishes third. The trainer is fuming and asks the jockey what went wrong. The jockey replies, "Nothing is wrong with me--it's this bloody horse. What is he--deaf or something?" The trainer replies, "Deaf?? DEAF?? He's not deaf--he's BLIND!" ---------------------------------------------- TOMORROW'S QUALIFIERS ---------------------------------------------- The TTS runners for Wednesday, 1st November are: Chepstow 1.00 Rowdy Yeats (PRICE WARNING) 2.45 Just For Men Huuntingdon 2.20 Handy Money Kety Star (PRICE WARNING) 2.55 New Entic Down's Folly 3.30 Bonchester Bridge Sea The Light Note the (PRICE WARNING). These horse - like all qualifiers - must be 14/1 or shorter to be a qualifier. ---------------------------------------------- REMINDER / NEXT LETTER... ---------------------------------------------- Well, that's all for this letter. I hope you've enjoyed reading it. If you'd like the statistical lowdown on which trainers perform best at which tracks, and you don't already own a copy, you can get more information on my eguide, TrainerTrackStats at www.trainertrackstats.com Next newsletter will be in your inbox on or around 15th November. Finally, if you have any comments / feedback on this letter, or anything you'd like to see in future, please email your suggestions to enquiries@trainertrackstats.com I'll look forward to hearing from you! As ever, thanks for reading, and best regards Matt Bisogno Author, TrainerTrackStats NH 2006/7 www.trainertrackstats.com